Looking at the 2010 Seattle Mariners, there are few positions where you could actually even produce a somewhat legitimate argument to try to upgrade the position giving the resources you’d be forced to give up. First base (Casey Kotchman), left field (Michael Saunders), catcher (Adam Moore) and fifth starter (Likely Doug Fister).
Kotchman has an outstanding glove on him (11.1 UZR/150 in 2009), has high upside and cost a little too much to just be a backup, so it looks like he’s our first baseman unless something absurd happens. Over in left field with Saunders is a higher possibility, but there doesn’t seem to be any options that would work that wouldn’t block him or other prospects in the near future. Moore, GM Jack is in love with him and they already have Rob Johnson and now switch-hitting Josh Bard.
That leaves the rotation where Fister is expected to become the club’s fifth starter assuming he trumps Luke French, Garret Olson and Jason Vargas in Spring Training. If they add an established arm to the five-man squad, which would move Fister to the bullpen and then knock move Vargas to either AAA (Tacoma Rainiers) or a trade. So, you’d be essentially going from a likely 0.5 WAR player in Vargas to a possible 3.0 WAR player in the rotation. While Fister’s WAR value would regress from the rotation to bullpen, it would probably only go from a 0.5-1.0 to around to 0.5. Here are some possibilities for that new arm in the rotation.
Francisco Liriano—Already said that the club is, “kicking the tires” on him by Dave Cameron over at USS Mariner, Liriano would bring high risk and high reward to the table. Cameron suggested a Liriano-Jose Lopez swap and then the M’s signing a free agent, likely Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez. Ryan Divish of The News Tribune has talked to me about what Liriano has done and what his potential is. Let’s just put it this way, he’s primarily the reason the Twins showed no fear in trading Johan Santana a few years back. With Lopez
With Lopez at his highest trade value yet and Liriano at his lowest, the trade seems like it would likely favor the Mariners in the long run assuming his arm will keep progressing like it has in the last few years.
Aaron Harang—Just a few years removed from being a 5 win player, Harang still has tremendous upside. He posted 4.14 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in 2009 and according to Bill James predictions, he should post the same in 2010. Just for comparison, Ryan Rowland-Smith’s FIP in 2009 was 4.20. Harang’s price wouldn’t be too high considering his latest few years.
John Smoltz—Smoltz has been a part of legendary rotations in the past so he would be familiar with the concept of having more than one intimidating pitcher. If he were to join the club, he would likely be the #4 pitcher moving Ian Snell to the fifth spot with Ryan Rowland-Smith obviously following the Hernandez-Lee duo.
Many fans have wondered about Smoltz based on his prior success in baseball, but he is still a force that would be a definite asset to Seattle’s staff. He had a 3.87 FIP along with a 1.5 WAR in only 78 innings. If he was to return back to his 5.0 WAR days of pre-2008, the Mariners could have unarguably the best rotation in baseball. Now they just need to sign him.
-Ben Brown
JuddSports 